Policy and Path Dependence: From QWERTY to Windows 95: "Welcome to the world of path dependence, a world governed not by our stars, not by ourselves, but by insignificant accidents of history. In this unpredictable world, small, seemingly inconsequential decisions lead inexorably to uncontrollable consequences. Ingestion of a fly leads an old lady to swallow a spider, a bird, a cat, a dog, a goat, a cow, and then, tragically, a horse. A typewriter keyboard arrangement that solves a temporary mechanical problem on the first typewriter becomes entrenched as the standard for generations to come, even though it is notoriously inefficient. A head start for one computer operating "

Path dependence came up in last night's class. Economist Kenneth Boulding puts it more succinctly: "Things are the way they are because they got that way." (The Boulding reference is courtesy of one of Gerry Weinberg's typically excellent books, The Secrets of Consulting).  This is a good starting point if you want a refresher on the idea. If you want to dig deeper into the topic, the place to start is probably Brian Arthur, now at the Sante Fe Institute

Of course, every technology marketer in the universe now attempts to get path dependence working in their favor, which makes life complicated if you're trying to make intelligent decisions.

5:22:36 PM •  • comment  

Hackers, Hot Rods, and the Information Drag Strip. from IEEE Spectrum

One of the features of my client's next-generation, in-vehicle, network architecture was the ability to provide high-speed, bidirectional TCP/IP (transmission control protocol/Internet protocol) networking between the car and the world. As a result of such capability, the engineers thought it would be useful to be able to get information to and from the car's various controllers. To do this, they added what was, in essence, a network hub to interconnect the buses and provide access to all the vehicle systems...The first thing through my brain was, "Cool! Now to improve performance I wouldn't have to replace the ignition-curve chip with an aftermarket one. I can just hack the car directly."

Of course, the auto engineers designing this system were shocked that someone might want to play with it. To them software was just another black box component. To someone with a programmer's perspective it was a bright shiny new toy to be played with. This disconnect in perspective is behind many, if not most, of the current disputes around the collision between intelletual property and a world where everything is software.

11:32:55 AM •  • comment